I'm late to the discussion, but have had fun reading the thread up to this point.
I just wanted to point out some ways in which AI has already creeped into the work that I do. I'm not a composer, but I am a sound editor/designer and mixer. I work mostly on commercials these days, but I have worked on a lot of documentaries and reality TV in the past.
The good things I've seen with AI are the noise reduction tools for dialogue. These have made a huge improvement over the last few years and now dialogue that was previously unsalvageable can be saved.
The not-so-great part of that is that I have clients that insist on using tools like Adobe Enhance, which can do amazing feats of noise reduction, but also suck the life out of a lot of recordings-- and now the amount of time the I am hired for is reduced because the "dialogue has already been cleaned".
In the "I'm not so sure if this is a good thing or not" category are the AI voice generators. I've had clients use them to do scratch tracks of voiceovers; then once the client has approved the script the Prod co hires a real VO talent and records the final script. That saves some back and forth for the client, but the VO talent has lost out on any revenue from pickup sessions. How long until the production company just skips hiring the VO talent altogether? Probably not long. Many Youtube videos already do this. The reads are still pretty sterile at this point, but I'm sure they will get better, just as the image generators have.
I've also had clients replace words within a spot with an AI generated voice of the same person when they've had to make a revision to the spot for legal or creative reasons. I guess I'm ok with that assuming that they have the permission of the person being imitated, but I can easily see a scenario where this technology can be used maliciously.
More on topic to this thread are the AI sound effect and music generators that are coming out like Eleven Labs and Loudly.com. They create music or sound effects based on prompts. Again, I think this generation of tools are still a bit weak, but I can see them getting better and certainly good enough for lower budget productions in the near future.
I've been lucky enough to make a living doing what I (usually) enjoy and have had a decently long run at it. I've had some fairly high profile clients over the years, but the bread and butter of my work, and probably that of 95% of the working audio engineers and composers, etc., has been for lower budget projects. These are exactly the kind of projects where AI will do the most damage-- the projects where the budget is only enough for library music, or they can only afford one VO session with the talent. These are the clients that will certainly opt for the AI generated music that has the same wallpaper feel as library music, or a sterile VO that gets the point across and costs nothing.
I can see the same thing happening in the video editing world. Can AI create a narrative film? Not yet, but it can probably create a sizzle reel of beauty shots, or create a string-out of happy people going about their day (think of a commercial for some prescription drug, for example). It might not be good enough quite yet today, but I bet it will be next year. Those are all shots that were, up until this point, scouted, casted, acted, lit, filmed, Color Corrected, etc., even if they ended up in a stock footage library somewhere. Those too are all jobs that are at risk.
So maybe things will shift and jobs that we haven't thought of yet will pop up somewhere unexpected. I don't want to be a complete pessimist, but I am glad that I am nearing the end of my working life though because I don't know if my revenue streams will exist in the not so distant future.