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SARS and some shocking history I didn't know
Old 10th April 2003
  #1
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
SARS and some shocking history I didn't know

This LINK points to an article about an influenza pandemic in 1918 that killed between 20,000,000 and 40,000,000 people, worldwide.

How I missed this vital history my whole llife, I have no idea. It's amazing reading if you've not studied this, but it does raise some alarming concerns for me.

Even though medical technology is vastly improved now, so is travel. The ability for large numbers of people to carry the infection across oceans in just hours likely offsets much of medicine's advances.

But the most interesting thing to me is the fact that this pandemic from 1918 also originated, like SARS, in China. That does not bode well for the virulence of SARS. The epidemic of 1918 had a mortality rate of 2.5%. SARS, even with modern medicine, initially appears to have a mortality rate of about 4%. Is this a mutation of that same disease, but more virulent this time?

Weird stuff that could make the war in Iraq seem insignifcant.


Regards,
Brian T
Old 11th April 2003
  #2
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malice's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Brian, SARS is a rather different virus from influenza.
It does not transmit by air, only by direct contact wich is a "little" reassuring.
Nevertheless, it is still a big menace, but this does not look like the major epidemic that sooner or later will come to get us.

That is why I would put more money in research than in weapons, but that is another subject

The war against new diseases is somehow a war that we won't necessarly win ...

Virus and bacteria evolve far more rapidly than us

interesting irony

malice
Old 11th April 2003
  #3
Founder
 
Jules's Avatar
I had a day dream about Londons Chinatown being roped off and made a no go area...

Old 11th April 2003
  #4
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Renie's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally posted by Jules
I had a day dream about Londons Chinatown being roped off and made a no go area...

It could hit trade in Chinatown. I haven't seen anyone with a mask in London yet. The ancient highway laws mean the police can order you to remove one if you were wearing one. I don't think they can really be of any use anyway .

Old 13th April 2003
  #5
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quadwould's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
but what about all of the bike messengers with masks????
Old 14th April 2003
  #6
Gear Addict
 
🎧 15 years
Living a few hours from Toronto, which has had a fairly serious attack, the following has come to light. Masks do help, but only in conjunction with gogels and gloves. Hand washing is still the major defense. Literally thousands are in quarantine in Toronto, most of them voluntary and this has been credited with slowing the spread. The folks who have the worst time are those sick with other ailments and the elderly. The toronto chinatown is deserted and there was a lot of ignorant behaviour towards asians, which seems finally to be being countered by common sense and human decency, but it took alot of asian Canadian having to start to speak out about how their kids were being treated at school etc.
A Canadian lab just mapped the gene yesterday and this may lead fairly quickly to a test, to identify sars, which will stop the quarantining of everyone who shows fever type flu symptoms, which we've had to do to stop the spread. But another hospital just closed it's doors this morning so we're not out of the woods yet. Take care Logan
Old 18th April 2003
  #7
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Renie's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Thursday, April 17, 2003 Posted: 1:59 PM EDT (1759 GMT)



HONG KONG (CNN) -- Health officials studying how Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is spread said Thursday they believe the virus that causes it is not transmitted in water or in the air, but could be spread by contact with fecal matter from an infected individual.



Old 22nd April 2003
  #8
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2966117.stm


Bummer.


Regards,
Brian T
Old 24th April 2003
  #9
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Topically enough, I've been scoring a Chinese film here in London. I was meant to go to Beijing to finish it off and help with the dub.

Not any more. They have relocated the entire post production back to Hong Kong where they feel 'safer'.

It may sound like out of the frying pan and into the, erm, frying pan, but I think they feel better about not being in mainland China.

It's put the whole thing back a few weeks. I'll let you know what happens.

The producer, a half Chinese guy and one of my oldest friends is going to be a father. Which is terriby worrying because three pregnant women are known to have died of SARS, and it has been passed on to their ceasarian delivered children.

Really scary.

I dreamt about Hong Kong last night and woke up with a sniffle. Hope it can't be transmitted that way!
Old 25th April 2003
  #10
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Renie's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Really scary is right.

The news each day is getting more and more disturbing.

6-9% of people dying now, from 4%.

Old 25th April 2003
  #11
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
I read that the MDs say the actual mortality is even higher, because the ratio is sick:dead and some of the currently sick will die. More like 10+% mortality now.

What I wish I could see is a graph charting the case increases daily. If it's becoming exponential, as I suspect, that's a big uh-oh.

Thank you o-so-much, Chinese government, for being such secrecy freaks that you've endangered millions to "save face".

Hey, if their economy takes a hit over this, that seems about right to me. Maybe it will prevent this sort of cover up in the future.

It' just so odd that the last global pandemic started in China in 1918, is it not? This is not even remotely as severe at this point. I hope it stays that way.


Regards,
Brian T
Old 25th April 2003
  #12
Gear Addict
 
🎧 15 years
Well in Toronto the problem seems to be under control, but at what cost. We have closed a significant number of hospitals and cancelled any non essential surgery, and not allowed visitors except for one parent in case of children in hospital. The health care people are exhausted and thousands have been in quarantine.People have died because cancer and heart surgery has been cancelled. There have been a growing number of health care professionals who have suggested that the disease ought to have been let run it's course as according to them the mortality rates are no greater than any other influenza. In fact most of the the deceased here have been elderly patients suffering from other illness. We might have been better off to quarantine the vulnerable rather than the healthy.
It's hard to know what to believe and there is great consternation in Toronto that the World Health Organization has put a travel advisory on Toronto. Apparently Canadians travelling abroad have been shunned in Ireland and the USA. If we follow this to it's logical conclusion I think it has great implications for the globalization of business and serious implications for travel. Take care Logan
Old 25th April 2003
  #13
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally posted by Logan
There have been a growing number of health care professionals who have suggested that the disease ought to have been let run it's course as according to them the mortality rates are no greater than any other influenza.
Are you serious? MDs in Toronto are actually saying that?

1 out of 10 people who get "any other influenza" do not die. Nowhere near that. The great Influenza Pandemic of 1918, that killed over 20,000,000 worldwide, had a mortality rate in the US of 2.5%. And that was in 1918 with far lesser medical knowledge. That's about 1/4 of SARS, it appears. The terms Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome are there for a reason. It's severe and it's acute.

I would imagine that the surprising number of doctors who have died (including the MD who discoverd SARS) would disagree about it being no more deadly, if they could.

Electing to not do all possible to contain a new and deadly disease would be incredibly bad judgement, IMO. I'm afraid the potential economic impact on Toronto may be clouding better judgement.


Regards,
Brian T
Old 25th April 2003
  #14
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
A package is winding its way to me from Hong Kong via Fedex.

I've been told to wear gloves while opening it and disenfect the video it contains before touching it.

That's as close as I want to get to this thing.
Old 25th April 2003
  #15
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally posted by BevvyB
A package is winding its way to me from Hong Kong via Fedex.

I've been told to wear gloves while opening it and disenfect the video it contains before touching it.

That's as close as I want to get to this thing.

Ummm, that sounds like a job for the assistant


BT
Old 25th April 2003
  #16
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Ol' Betsey's Avatar
 
1 Review written
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally posted by BevvyB
A package is winding its way to me from Hong Kong via Fedex.

I've been told to wear gloves while opening it and disenfect the video it contains before touching it.

That's as close as I want to get to this thing.
Holy Moly.

They DO say that you can catch the virus by coming into contact with objects (clothes etc.) that have been handled by someone that's infected within the last 24 hrs.

Be careful...

R.
Old 25th April 2003
  #17
Gear Addict
 
🎧 15 years
I don't know how many cases we had at the peak, however there are still 257 probable and confirmed cases as of today and to this point only 16 have died. The vast majority of those have been the extremely elderly or very sick whom were already in hospital and got infected there. I don't think anybody is saying that this is not a dangerous disease, but they are saying that extra ordinary measures were taken to stop the spread and it's not obvious that it will be contained yet, and that those measures can not be maintained over a long period of time. Basically all access to hospital in Toronto was curbed and there were some very serious outcomes stemming from that. I heard a figure today that said over 3000 people a year die of the various influenzas in British Columbia alone. Nobody pays much attention to that.
Canadians are in general very socially conscious law abiding people with access to free health care and significant social benefits if unemployed. The waiting periods are being waived for benefits for those were quarantined and legislation is being prepared to stop evictions for those folks who can't pay rent. I would hate to see what would happen in a place like NY for example, where there might be significant resistance to the state telling people to quarantine themselves and where folks had to pay for medical care. Can you imagine being told you can't visit a sick family member in hospital or can't attend a funeral of a loved one who has died. I could see gun play being the result in the USA, but all these things were and are still being done in Toronto.
The point is that every time SARS rears it's head these measures will have to go into effect and they have significant social implications as well. So I don't think it's unusual that some medical people are saying that that's not possible or advisable, and ,according to the guy I heard today, who was, I believe, the chief medical officer in British Columbia, death rates are not out of wack with normal rates of death from influenza. But I don't know and I'm only put forward the info for sake of discussion. Take care Logan
Old 1st May 2003
  #18
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
SARS=Population control IMO

more people on the planet the more the rich will have to give up to keep them happy. do you think they want to do that?
Old 1st May 2003
  #19
Gear Addict
 
🎧 15 years
Yo man
I've oft uttered, "just because you're not paranoid, doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you". But ah you have to experience paranoia in a good analytical framework. Far from this being a tool of the rich to eliminate a few of us plebes, this is extremely worrisome to the rich. The elites of the world are headed on a headlong rush toward globalization. This is happening for many reasons, the chief of which is that it is simply easier to circumvent any regulation of economic activities in the global economy, corporations literally become states onto themselves. Sars has become a significant spanner in the works in the global economy. As of today the huge trade show that happens in Singapor has had 3500 of the 4000 participants cancell. This is the main show that decides which consumer crap will appear in your local walmart and it's toast. The fact that we don't make anything here (N Amer) any more is huge in this scenario, all our ****e comes from that area of the world. What happens when we have to ramp up production here again and what happens in the third world when we start to shut the gate on them and the elite of the communist part in China can't be bought off with a taste of the myrad of sweat shop business that goes on in China. Does beligerence heat up? Who knows many implications, none of which have anything to do with population control. It's not just SARS, it's west nile and several diseases that are currently attacking the timber in N amer, which are directly attributable to global trade. At the moment west nile is a much greater threat to me and mine than SARS will ever be. I live in rural area where going outside from May 15 to August 15th will guarantee you will be bitten by a mosquito. When my bouvier comes in there will be 20 mosquitos come in with him, when my kids go out and leave the door open 20 more come in, it's a fact of life and there is no refuge. Not really into bathing my kids in DDT either. This kind of stuff is going to have huge ramifications in the very near future. Can you imagine Florida without the 100's of thousands of Canadians who go there every winter or NY without tourists, I'm guaranteeing most of the residents of those places who owe their living to the tourist trade can't and won't. Therein lies the crux of the problem, and believe me at this moment the rich are ****ting themselves, not hunkering down and waiting for some virus to free up a few more resources. take care Logan
Old 1st May 2003
  #20
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
One of my best friends is over from Hong Kong on Saturday.

Do you think he'll mind hanging out with me wearing a diving bell suit?
Attached Thumbnails
SARS and some shocking history I didn't know-page9.9.png  
Old 12th May 2003
  #21
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
interesting points...so what are its origins then? i just can't believe some deadly organism just appears out of no where...and is contagious as hell...seems fishy to me...and y wouldn't they be hunkering down? ...this seems like an investment that'll yeild greater returns IMO...reducing the population as well as helping the medicinal conglomerates...how inhuman rich people can be to 'poorer' people makes me sick to my stomach..i don't underestimate them at all... i do realize it is extreme...but then i remember its same people that said if you don't look like them your less then human...we also can't forget china is the sleeping giant..if all the countries in that region get there **** together it would be over for western dominance....there at least a 1/3 of the population of the entire world!

Quote:
Originally posted by Logan
Yo man
I've oft uttered, "just because you're not paranoid, doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you". But ah you have to experience paranoia in a good analytical framework. Far from this being a tool of the rich to eliminate a few of us plebes, this is extremely worrisome to the rich. The elites of the world are headed on a headlong rush toward globalization. This is happening for many reasons, the chief of which is that it is simply easier to circumvent any regulation of economic activities in the global economy, corporations literally become states onto themselves. Sars has become a significant spanner in the works in the global economy. As of today the huge trade show that happens in Singapor has had 3500 of the 4000 participants cancell. This is the main show that decides which consumer crap will appear in your local walmart and it's toast. The fact that we don't make anything here (N Amer) any more is huge in this scenario, all our ****e comes from that area of the world. What happens when we have to ramp up production here again and what happens in the third world when we start to shut the gate on them and the elite of the communist part in China can't be bought off with a taste of the myrad of sweat shop business that goes on in China. Does beligerence heat up? Who knows many implications, none of which have anything to do with population control. It's not just SARS, it's west nile and several diseases that are currently attacking the timber in N amer, which are directly attributable to global trade. At the moment west nile is a much greater threat to me and mine than SARS will ever be. I live in rural area where going outside from May 15 to August 15th will guarantee you will be bitten by a mosquito. When my bouvier comes in there will be 20 mosquitos come in with him, when my kids go out and leave the door open 20 more come in, it's a fact of life and there is no refuge. Not really into bathing my kids in DDT either. This kind of stuff is going to have huge ramifications in the very near future. Can you imagine Florida without the 100's of thousands of Canadians who go there every winter or NY without tourists, I'm guaranteeing most of the residents of those places who owe their living to the tourist trade can't and won't. Therein lies the crux of the problem, and believe me at this moment the rich are ****ting themselves, not hunkering down and waiting for some virus to free up a few more resources. take care Logan
Old 12th May 2003
  #22
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Well, I spent last week with my friend from Hong Kong, and have manhandled video tapes and stuff that have been fedexed over from Honk Kong for 3 weeks now.

I'm still here. Sorry about that.
Old 13th May 2003
  #23
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
Man, are there some conspiracy freaks out and about on this forum, or what?

Now all we have to do is figure out who the hell invented polio and malaria and small pox and hepatitis and chicken pox and those weird little itchy places on your back and STDs (the perv) and .........well, it's gonna keep somebody pretty busy figuring all that out, I think.

dfegad

Regards,
Brian T


P.S. I mean, while we're at it, who's the joker that invented that goofy, deadly flu strain in 1918, anyway? I bet it's the same guy that did this one. Some whack Chinese dude, most likely.
Old 13th May 2003
  #24
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
Can we get the guy who invented acne? He really screwed up my formative years.
Old 15th May 2003
  #25
Mindreader
 
BevvyB's Avatar
 
🎧 15 years
First UK case of Sars reported

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3031391.stm
Old 15th May 2003
  #26
Lives for gear
 
🎧 15 years
HAVE you heard of biological warfare? how do you think its conducted? scientist don't just make a deadly virus w/o actually really testin it if it worked...come on guys we can't forget that medicine is a BIG MONEY MAKING industry as well once you destroy one epidemic you need another to pick up the slack...if some guy in germany can put 10million + people in ovens and the world stands idlely by i would assume ANYTHING is possible...this occured only 60-70 years ago!....not to mention slavery STILL occuring in africa and the mideast...global corporations treating human beings like cattle..i wouldn't put anything past the powers that be...remember just because everything is rosy on your block doesn't mean the rest of the city is str8...me being black probably makes me more paranoid/open minded to such 'conspiracy theores'...i can't positively confrim that SARS is, its just a hunch...i'm basically just saying keep all options open...they did it before they can do it again...


Quote:
Originally posted by BrianT
Man, are there some conspiracy freaks out and about on this forum, or what?

Now all we have to do is figure out who the hell invented polio and malaria and small pox and hepatitis and chicken pox and those weird little itchy places on your back and STDs (the perv) and .........well, it's gonna keep somebody pretty busy figuring all that out, I think.

dfegad

Regards,
Brian T


P.S. I mean, while we're at it, who's the joker that invented that goofy, deadly flu strain in 1918, anyway? I bet it's the same guy that did this one. Some whack Chinese dude, most likely.
Old 16th May 2003
  #27
Gear Addict
 
🎧 15 years
As I said in my former post I don't think that there is any conscious conspiracy going on here, it's just the outcome of rampant global economics. There are many such examples. At the moment. A lot of these diseases are now jumping from animals to humans due to industrialised agricultural practices and feeding dead animals to live ones. Genetic manipulation of animals and plants opens up a potential pandorsa box as well. Most major tree species in north america are under attack from parasites that are from other areas of the world, the great lakes are having huge problems from zebra muscles and gobi that were introduced from balast dumping of foriegn ships. Global fishing fleets are quickly emptying the oceans of large fish species. There are all kinds of potential problems out there that are a direct result of the massive increase of shipping goods or doing business, all over the world, without very many regulations and because of the rightwing attack on government, very few people to enforce the regulations that do exist. I do believe there will be a massive problem at some time with disease or environmental contaminents, but it will be from blatant greed, not a conspiracy. take care Logan
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