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Call me crazy but is UFO disclosure near? What Role will music play if true?
Old 20th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4351
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by AfterViewer ➡️
That is an excellent sci-fi storyline. I think aliens and human children would have to be raised together in order for there to be any trust or ease in any social interaction between them.
It this story, the idea was this xenophobic reaction was instinctive and visceral. It was beyond revulsion, it was destroy destroy destroy. If anything I would imagine children would be less able to control their impulses, even if they were more inclined to flee than fight.

I remember a totally different story where aliens and humans were living close together and the alien parents came to the school complaining that the human teachers were "lying" to their children.

It turned out that they were referring to fiction. So everything from Peter Pan to Winnie the Pooh was "lies" because there was no such person as Peter Pan and the humans knew it full well and yet they still told the alien children about him. The aliens had no concept of a fictional 'story' unless it was literally factual like History. I think things got a little tense there for a while.



Quote:
The more human-like the species, the better.
some say convergent evolution will make aliens probably look a lot like us. My suspicion is that we will be surprised at how far off an alien could possibly be from anything we are used to and even from anything we have so far been able to imagine.

I like the Puppeteers as a candidate for non-convergent evolution. Three legs. The rear leg evolved for kicking predators while running away. Two tentacles with one eye on each one. So they can watch out for predators in two directions at once. A mouth with very strong lips that is also a hand (or at least a "mitten") so they can use tools. Brain is down inside the body under a bony plate for greater protection.

Call me crazy but is UFO disclosure near? What Role will music play if true?-piersons_puppeteer_illustration_from_barlowes_guide_to_extraterrestrials.jpeg

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I don't see anything like "Star Trek comraderies" taking place in this star system anytime soon in this millennium, perhaps in the distant future.
On the other hand what guy hasn't watched some female "alien" with green skin or strange bony foreheads and thought hmm....




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Call me crazy but is UFO disclosure near? What Role will music play if true?-piersons_puppeteer_illustration_from_barlowes_guide_to_extraterrestrials.jpeg  
Old 21st September 2022 | Show parent
  #4352
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I must say it is somewhat tiresome that so many of the aliens in movies and television all look mostly human other than some reptilian accoutrements. They mostly all have two legs and two arms with two hands. And of course they all speak English.

I get why this is but I find myself rolling my eyes when I watch stuff with alien beings. ....hmmmm, maybe that's why I do not watch this kind of stuff much.
Old 22nd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4353
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
I must say it is somewhat tiresome that so many of the aliens in movies and television all look mostly human other than some reptilian accoutrements.
or pointy ears!

Quote:
They mostly all have two legs and two arms with two hands.
yes, the excuse in the past was always that human actors had to portray these aliens, so only 2 arms, only two legs. Nose below the eyes, etc. Blame it on 'convergent evolution'.

But today we could make CGI anything. We do it for a lot of the "monsters". The kind that go '' and eat people. But not so much for the aliens we are supposed to be 'hanging out' with. And of course if there are only just a few small differences, the alien babes can still be hot.
Quote:
And of course they all speak English
.

Well to be fair, Julius Caesar is never speaking Latin when he appears in a movie, either. And if you go watch James Bond in a movie theater in Tokyo...

That one doesn't bother me so much. I am always willing to accept narrative translation for my convenience. In one movie, onboard the Russian submarine, they are speaking Russian with subtitles for about 2 minutes and then it kind of "blurs" and when it fades back in, the Russian sailors are now speaking English. I appreciated that because it kind of 'admitted' what they were doing but still established the sub as a Russian sub. And did not force me to read subtitles for the whole damn movie.

In some science-fiction shows, they explain it away by saying: all the 'civilized' species speak "Galactic" - which we then see as English. What strikes me as improbable is when they meet a new uncontacted species and they never have to park in the middle of outer space for several days, weeks, months or years to have their computers and their linguists painstakingly work out the other's language. Pointing at a chair and saying "chair!" We had to do that when exploring our own planet and meeting members of our own species who at least were born with the same basic brain structure. But when you have to go to a different planet every week...

Quote:
I get why this is but I find myself rolling my eyes when I watch stuff with alien beings. ....hmmmm, maybe that's why I do not watch this kind of stuff much
I have always been a big consumer of science-fiction novels and short stories. When I was young, science-fiction movies and TV shows were rare, so I would gladly put up with all the corny BS just for some cool spaceships on the screen.

These days, it seems that every other movie is a genre film. Yet, if anything, the "science fiction" gets cornier and cornier. The novels that I loved rarely seem to get made. To me, the ideas and concepts explored in those books are provocative and interesting. The recent Dune was a pretty good SF movie, but aside from animals like the sandworms (i.e. "monsters") there are no aliens in the Dune stories.

I would love to see something like the Ringworld books made into a movie or a show. That's the series that has the Puppeteers.
Old 22nd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4354
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🎧 10 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️
or pointy ears!


yes, the excuse in the past was always that human actors had to portray these aliens, so only 2 arms, only two legs. Nose below the eyes, etc. Blame it on 'convergent evolution'.

But today we could make CGI anything. We do it for a lot of the "monsters". The kind that go '' and eat people. But not so much for the aliens we are supposed to be 'hanging out' with. And of course if there are only just a few small differences, the alien babes can still be hot.
.

Well to be fair, Julius Caesar is never speaking Latin when he appears in a movie, either. And if you go watch James Bond in a movie theater in Tokyo...

That one doesn't bother me so much. I am always willing to accept narrative translation for my convenience. In one movie, onboard the Russian submarine, they are speaking Russian with subtitles for about 2 minutes and then it kind of "blurs" and when it fades back in, the Russian sailors are now speaking English. I appreciated that because it kind of 'admitted' what they were doing but still established the sub as a Russian sub. And did not force me to read subtitles for the whole damn movie.

In some science-fiction shows, they explain it away by saying: all the 'civilized' species speak "Galactic" - which we then see as English. What strikes me as improbable is when they meet a new uncontacted species and they never have to park in the middle of outer space for several days, weeks, months or years to have their computers and their linguists painstakingly work out the other's language. Pointing at a chair and saying "chair!" We had to do that when exploring our own planet and meeting members of our own species who at least were born with the same basic brain structure. But when you have to go to a different planet every week...



I have always been a big consumer of science-fiction novels and short stories. When I was young, science-fiction movies and TV shows were rare, so I would gladly put up with all the corny BS just for some cool spaceships on the screen.

These days, it seems that every other movie is a genre film. Yet, if anything, the "science fiction" gets cornier and cornier. The novels that I loved rarely seem to get made. To me, the ideas and concepts explored in those books are provocative and interesting. The recent Dune was a pretty good SF movie, but aside from animals like the sandworms (i.e. "monsters") there are no aliens in the Dune stories.

I would love to see something like the Ringworld books made into a movie or a show. That's the series that has the Puppeteers.
I have seen that submarine movie although I do not recall which one it was - I do remember how it started in Russian with subtitles and soon switched to English and you are right, I do prefer the English as I do not like reading subtitles when watching movies. If I want to read, I'll pick up the book.

It would be nice to see a really well written sci-fi movie with creative CGI. You are so right that most sci-fi movies are pretty corny. I did not see the recent Dune but hope it shows up eventually on Netflix or Amazon streaming. I love love loved the book!
Old 22nd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4355
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
I have seen that submarine movie although I do not recall which one it was - I do remember how it started in Russian with subtitles and soon switched to English and you are right, I do prefer the English as I do not like reading subtitles when watching movies. If I want to read, I'll pick up the book.
Maybe it was Hunt for Red October?

One thing that can be fun with subtitles is when you actually know the language they are speaking and can spot discrepancies and compromises in the translation. Like when the subtitles read: "you devils" and actually he's saying something much less printable.


Quote:
It would be nice to see a really well written sci-fi movie with creative CGI. You are so right that most sci-fi movies are pretty corny. I did not see the recent Dune but hope it shows up eventually on Netflix or Amazon streaming. I love love loved the book!


I remember being very disappointed in the David Lynch version. I believe I read somewhere that he never even read the book himself. I was shocked at how faithful someone could be to the specifics of the plot and totally miss the point. There was a stupid stupid stupid marketing tie-in to a toy "Voice" weapon that was unnecessarily added to the story. It not only did not belong, it contradicted the whole idea. I had to re-read the book immediately to get the bad taste out of my brain.

The new one is good, IMO, much closer the feel of the novel and has the Desert Vibe that Lynch totally missed. Another plus is that they did not try to cram the whole massive book into one movie. It's "part one".

My brother has HBO Max or whatever it is, so I watched it back in July when I was dog-sitting there. You can find it on Hulu or Prime for pay. YouTube also - but for twice as much.
Old 23rd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4356
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🎧 10 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️
Maybe it was Hunt for Red October?

One thing that can be fun with subtitles is when you actually know the language they are speaking and can spot discrepancies and compromises in the translation. Like when the subtitles read: "you devils" and actually he's saying something much less printable.






I remember being very disappointed in the David Lynch version. I believe I read somewhere that he never even read the book himself. I was shocked at how faithful someone could be to the specifics of the plot and totally miss the point. There was a stupid stupid stupid marketing tie-in to a toy "Voice" weapon that was unnecessarily added to the story. It not only did not belong, it contradicted the whole idea. I had to re-read the book immediately to get the bad taste out of my brain.

The new one is good, IMO, much closer the feel of the novel and has the Desert Vibe that Lynch totally missed. Another plus is that they did not try to cram the whole massive book into one movie. It's "part one".

My brother has HBO Max or whatever it is, so I watched it back in July when I was dog-sitting there. You can find it on Hulu or Prime for pay. YouTube also - but for twice as much.
Thanks for the tout. I did not like the Lynch Dune either. I have also heard that the new one is pretty good. I'm gearing up to re-read it myself so will wait until I'm done and then I'll seek out the movie when the book is fresh. I read it some 50 years ago.
Old 23rd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4357
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🎧 20 years
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Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
Thanks for the tout. I did not like the Lynch Dune either. I have also heard that the new one is pretty good. I'm gearing up to re-read it myself so will wait until I'm done and then I'll seek out the movie when the book is fresh. I read it some 50 years ago.
I read it twice, once after the movie as a "cleanser".
I almost never read books twice, but I enjoyed it both times.
Old 23rd September 2022 | Show parent
  #4358
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I have always meant to read Dune, but I loved the recent film. Denis can do no wrong it seems. My friend is working on part 2 and it sounds like it's going to be pretty epic!
It's always interesting to read classic sci-fi now. I just read Heinlein's Friday and it did not age well, at all. I did enjoy some of Foundation though.
Old 24th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️
I read it twice, once after the movie as a "cleanser".
I almost never read books twice, but I enjoyed it both times.
I'm like you - I seldom read books twice but "Shogun" by James Clavell and "Bill Graham Presents:" which is a book about the rock promoter are the ones I've read more than once. "Dune" will make that list. Oh, and a third - "Here, There And Everywhere" by Geoff Emerick.
Old 24th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4360
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When I first read "Dune", I really struggled through the first 80 pages or so. There was a lot going on and it felt like myy brain had a hard time making sense of things and then all of a sudden everything came together and I was hooked. I've spoken to a few others who say they had the same experience. I am actually surprised I have not re-read it because it is one of my favorite books.
Old 26th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4361
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
When I first read "Dune", I really struggled through the first 80 pages or so. There was a lot going on and it felt like myy brain had a hard time making sense of things and then all of a sudden everything came together and I was hooked. I've spoken to a few others who say they had the same experience. I am actually surprised I have not re-read it because it is one of my favorite books.
I sort of remember it as the first third being a lot of world-building and introducing characters and Palace Intrigue and the last two-thirds being the Desert part of the story.

A big, heavy book is like a big, heavy airplane, it needs a lot of "runway" to take off.
Old 30th September 2022
  #4362
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Wasn't it the US military that officially release their UFO sighting footages from their pilots? It's incredible to see it. Also I thought it was the government/NASA said they are re-opening the UFO/research division, which now they are called UAPs. I know it seems crazy but there is more "official"/world leader support for the possibility of UFOs than ever before, and we should ask why are they doing this, and what's in it for them.
Old 30th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4363
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The police are putting shotguns on drones, we should be worried as hell about what adversaries are doing with the tech. They should also be worried as hell what we’re doing with it…
It’s funny how most people think all politicians and bureaucrats are idiots and completely self interested, but also constantly engaged in vast clandestine operations they never leverage for personal gain. Guess those secrets are too self evidently dangerous for the masses to grapple with.
Also every astronomer is paid off or in fear of their lives.
Old 30th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4364
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by soundmurmur ➡️
Wasn't it the US military that officially release their UFO sighting footages from their pilots? It's incredible to see it. Also I thought it was the government/NASA said they are re-opening the UFO/research division, which now they are called UAPs. I know it seems crazy but there is more "official"/world leader support for the possibility of UFOs than ever before, and we should ask why are they doing this, and what's in it for them.
I am sure that the US military is way more concerned about these objects being Russian or Chinese than they are about them being alien visitors from another planet. I think the new emphasis on centralized reporting has more to do with National Security than Planetary Security. What's in it for them might simply be countering another country's military threat. I doubt the Chinese or Russians have "craft" capable of doing all the things ascribed to UFOs, but it is quite believable to me that they may have the technology to spoof our sensors into seeing things that aren't there doing things they aren't actually doing.

Another reason to not be concerned with Planetary Defense is the extreme mismatch. If real aliens exist, our weapons would be a joke to them. When you are an ant living in an ant hill, there isn't much point in beefing up your ant hill defenses against an adversary who has an Abrams tank.

As far as world leaders go, yeah what about that? Do all the UFOs only land in the United States? Are all these nations that hate each other and are ready to go to war against each other, all somehow cooperating with the US government on this one issue? Do UFOs ever visit North Korea, for example? Or Iran?

I would think that a "rogue" state might have a vested interest in upsetting the apple cart. Big disruptions might cause a shakeup that they could leverage into an advantage. But somehow they all agree to cooperate with us in a "cover up". Even Kim and the Ayatollahs.
Old 30th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4365
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremy.c. ➡️
It’s funny how most people think all politicians and bureaucrats are idiots and completely self interested, but also constantly engaged in vast clandestine operations they never leverage for personal gain. .
The smart/stupid aliens have their Earthly counterpart in the smart/stupid conspirators. It's amazing that not one of them ever found it to his advantage to sell out his comrades. Think of what the National Enquirer would pay.

Quote:
Guess those secrets are too self evidently dangerous for the masses to grapple with.
Count your blessings! We are so incredibly fortunate that our leaders are impervious to the "panic" that would grip the general public if the 'truth' about aliens was 'revealed'. Every normal human would freak out, but these guys are a special breed who can handle it.
Old 30th September 2022 | Show parent
  #4366
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It is certainly fun to think about the possibility of other advanced species elsewhere in the universe and with the number of galaxies, stars and planets it is certainly possible there are other advanced species but if you think about it, there are good reasons to have doubt.

For example, were it not for the meteor that hit Chicxulub I do not think humans would exist as the dinosaurs would still reign supreme. Getting them out of the way allowed humans to eventually evolve.

We have yet to find life elsewhere so we have little to go on as far as how life begins. If there is life out there, does it always evolve the same way or does it evolve differently based on the environments it is exposed to?

So, are there worlds out there with creatures similar to dinosaurs or are there worlds where human type forms have evolved? And since we do not know, there could be life forms we might not even recognize. We just do not have enough information to know yet. We have a pretty good idea of how life evolved here but even that is not 100% defined as far as I am aware.

There are so many variables and so many yet unanswered questions.

If there are other advanced species, to get to earth they would have to have developed methods of travel that go beyond our understanding of the laws of physics. Maybe there are worm holes and maybe it is possible to use them to travel through the cosmos but that is still science fiction and to travel the vast distances of space, and even within the Milkyway galaxy, species would have to have found a way to travel faster than the speed of life or developed methods of traveling for millions of years to get from their home to ours. These are some pretty big "ifs".

The number of variables that would have to have their dots connected make for some pretty big odds.

With all that, whatever these "UFO's" are, the more likely explanations are that they are human created and not extraterrestrial.

My 2 cents...
Old 1st October 2022 | Show parent
  #4367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️

Another reason to not be concerned with Planetary Defense is the extreme mismatch. If real aliens exist, our weapons would be a joke to them. When you are an ant living in an ant hill, there isn't much point in beefing up your ant hill defenses against an adversary who has an Abrams tank.
Maybe, but also maybe not. It`s just a better engine of sorts. In less than 100 years we went from the first planes, to rockets going to the moon. Yet those WW1 planes had guns on them that could technically take down the rockets of today. The technology that would allow us to travel interstellar distances might be closer than we think. Maybe even less than 100 years.

So sure, we might be the ants...but we also might be the Lions.
Old 1st October 2022 | Show parent
  #4368
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🎧 20 years
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Originally Posted by deondamage ➡️
... In less than 100 years we went from the first planes, to rockets going to the moon. Yet those WW1 planes had guns on them that could technically take down the rockets of today. The technology that would allow us to travel interstellar distances might be closer than we think. Maybe even less than 100 years.

So sure, we might be the ants...but we also might be the Lions.
I think about the time scales of the universe, the galaxy, the planet. Consider evolution from bacteria all the way to technological civilizations. Traveling to another star system and meeting a civilization that was within "100 years" of your technology would be like taking a train to another city, introducing yourself to the first stranger you met as you walked off the train, and finding out that person to born on the same day as you and within a few hours either way.

Science fiction stories always have us heroically "standing up" to an alien invasion. But that's because humans are the audience for these stories. Not out any sense of realism. In Independence Day, they used a Macbook to bring down the alien mother ship. That movie was made in 1996. I wouldn't even be able to use that laptop for my email today!

Once the credits are over, Bambi vs Godzilla is a rather short movie.

The Gulf War is a good example of technological mismatch. The Coalition had state of the art 90's technology and the Iraqis had 70's Soviet-era planes and tanks. It was incredibly lopsided and we are talking about only a 20 year gap in technology.

Quote:
In less than 100 years we went from the first planes, to rockets going to the moon.
to me this is an argument against any kind of parity with a spacefaring species. The pace of evolution, both biological and technological is accelerating. The hockey-stick curve. For the first 3 billion years (out of 4) of life on earth, there were only single celled creatures. Tool using hominids only appeared just 2.6 million years ago. Our species only emerged 200,000 years ago. Metals discovered only 10,000 years ago. The blink of an eye in cosmic terms. Then as you say, from the Wright Brothers to the moon in less than 100.

Even if interstellar travel was capable of being invented in that 100 year gap, that 100 years would still be absolutely decisive in any conflict because of how the rate of change is increasing. And on the cosmic scale, millions or even billions of years is not out of the question.
Quote:
Yet those WW1 planes had guns on them that could technically take down the rockets of today.
Head-on maybe!

A machine gun bullet travels at about 900 m/s. The new hypersonic missiles travel at Mach 6 - about 2000 m/s, they could literally outrun the bullets. A .50 caliber bullet has a range that is less than the radius of the fireball of a nuclear explosion. "Close enough" for a thermonuclear weapon is in tens of miles.

Our own history is unfortunately replete with examples of civilizations with gunpowder beating civilizations with arrows every single time.
Even though the arrow could "technically" kill a modern soldier.

Last edited by joeq; 1st October 2022 at 11:55 PM..
Old 1st October 2022 | Show parent
  #4369
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AfterViewer's Avatar
 
🎧 10 years
Proof Positive Reading :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOyLdYDHU0k

Bonus Points of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IROLRx0Bypw

Last edited by AfterViewer; 2nd October 2022 at 01:29 AM..
Old 3rd October 2022 | Show parent
  #4370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️
I think about the time scales of the universe, the galaxy, the planet. Consider evolution from bacteria all the way to technological civilizations. Traveling to another star system and meeting a civilization that was within "100 years" of your technology would be like taking a train to another city, introducing yourself to the first stranger you met as you walked off the train, and finding out that person to born on the same day as you and within a few hours either way.

Science fiction stories always have us heroically "standing up" to an alien invasion. But that's because humans are the audience for these stories. Not out any sense of realism. In Independence Day, they used a Macbook to bring down the alien mother ship. That movie was made in 1996. I wouldn't even be able to use that laptop for my email today!

Once the credits are over, Bambi vs Godzilla is a rather short movie.

The Gulf War is a good example of technological mismatch. The Coalition had state of the art 90's technology and the Iraqis had 70's Soviet-era planes and tanks. It was incredibly lopsided and we are talking about only a 20 year gap in technology.


to me this is an argument against any kind of parity with a spacefaring species. The pace of evolution, both biological and technological is accelerating. The hockey-stick curve. For the first 3 billion years (out of 4) of life on earth, there were only single celled creatures. Tool using hominids only appeared just 2.6 million years ago. Our species only emerged 200,000 years ago. Metals discovered only 10,000 years ago. The blink of an eye in cosmic terms. Then as you say, from the Wright Brothers to the moon in less than 100.

Even if interstellar travel was capable of being invented in that 100 year gap, that 100 years would still be absolutely decisive in any conflict because of how the rate of change is increasing. And on the cosmic scale, millions or even billions of years is not out of the question.


Head-on maybe!

A machine gun bullet travels at about 900 m/s. The new hypersonic missiles travel at Mach 6 - about 2000 m/s, they could literally outrun the bullets. A .50 caliber bullet has a range that is less than the radius of the fireball of a nuclear explosion. "Close enough" for a thermonuclear weapon is in tens of miles.

Our own history is unfortunately replete with examples of civilizations with gunpowder beating civilizations with arrows every single time.
Even though the arrow could "technically" kill a modern soldier.
I understand completely what you are saying and I mostly agree with it. However, for the sake of playing devil`s advocate again...the cosmic scale theory has a few assumptions connected to it. The first one being the actual time scale, based on an observation of accelerated expansion, due to a "big bang" and something we don`t understand yet, so we call it "Dark Energy". But lets put all of that aside for now.

Are we assuming that the exponential growth of technology is constant? What happens when we finally combine advanced AI with Quantum computing? Does it reach some sort of singularity where we have access to understanding everything there is to offer about science and our objective reality? What happens when we figure out how to merge our minds with that?

Right now we are seeing exponential growth in science and technology because it`s still new to us, but that might slow down significantly in a couple of decades. It`s almost natural that it would slow down and become exponentially more difficult to advance it.

Back to the cosmic timescale again. If we`re using that scale, then we also assume that you might be able to jump from anywhere in the universe to Earth. That might after all not be possible. So the question becomes from how far away can you jump and how does that affect the timescale we need to be concerned about.

Regarding rockets...super slow when they take off. Also if you want to talk about the Gulf War, then you also have to bring up Vietnam and Afghanistan. In both cases the more advanced power lost.
Old 3rd October 2022 | Show parent
  #4371
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I think the comparison for technology was a fair analogy, but the bigger power would have won if everything was on the table. Luckily the PR of total annihilation was bad enough to deter that. Perhaps the aliens will have peaceniks back home applying political pressure to not use their planet killer guns?
There has been a lot of talk about self improving general AI, but we're still not close enough to know what that will mean for us, and it.
It would be amazing if AI could discover new physics for us. Things that would lead to being able to harness the massive amounts of energy required for space travel, or folding space or whatever.
If the singularity leads to our destruction, then still working off a data set of one, it could explain the Fermi paradox...
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4372
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🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by deondamage ➡️
I understand completely what you are saying and I mostly agree with it. However, for the sake of playing devil`s advocate again...the cosmic scale theory has a few assumptions connected to it. The first one being the actual time scale, based on an observation of accelerated expansion, due to a "big bang" and something we don`t understand yet, so we call it "Dark Energy".
Well, maybe God created the Universe 5 minutes ago, including all your memories of your prior existence, all the fossils in the ground, all the decayed isotopes, all the red-shifted stars. But my objection to finding aliens that are almost exactly "level" to us is because of how unlikely I think it is. This kind of stuff is even less likely, IMO!
Quote:
Right now we are seeing exponential growth in science and technology because its still new to us,
But it's not really new to us, it started with the first hominids who learned how to use fire. That was so long ago and it started out so slowly, that maybe you think it doesn't count?

I think these exponential growth curves may be built in to how things work. As I said earlier, single-celled algae type things took up 3/4 of the Earth's history. 9/10 of the Earth's history had passed before any critters moved onto land. Humans have been around for only 0.007% of the Earth's history. The time scales are hard to grasp, things are accelerating biologically faster and faster, and it seems arrogant to assume we are the pinnacle, and Evolution stops with us. And the same should hold true for other planets.

Technology, IMO, is the same pattern. Starts off slow, goes faster and faster. A couple million years of using only stone tools. Copper - the first metal - was discovered only 10 or 11 thousand years ago. Industrial revolution just a couple hundred ago. And now a satellite is telling you where you are to within 50 feet. As for predicting that the end of technological development might be 'coming soon', this guy beat you to it:

Quote:
In 1889, Charles H. Duell was the Commissioner of US patent office. He is widely quoted as having stated that the patent office would soon shrink in size, and eventually close, because… “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
Quote:
Back to the cosmic timescale again. If we`re using that scale, then we also assume that you might be able to jump from anywhere in the universe to Earth. That might after all not be possible.
Yeah well as Fermi said, if it was possible, where are they?

Quote:
Regarding rockets...super slow when they take off.

There is a story that during WWII, one American plane shot down a V2 rocket just as it was taking off. But apparently that was just a story. There's no record of it actually happening.

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Also if you want to talk about the Gulf War, then you also have to bring up Vietnam and Afghanistan. In both cases the more advanced power lost
But we all know those wars had politically limited objectives. Plus, the weaker side had outside help. It was not because the technology was competitive. As jeremy.c. said the advanced powers only lost because they were not going for conquest or annihilation. And aliens may not have 'peaceniks' at home. In Independence Day, the captured alien is asked "what do you want" and he says "we want you to die". If our only agenda was for North Vietnam to "die", the US could have nuked every square inch of the place 10 times over and not even noticed the decrease in our stockpile.

Plus, we Earthlings probably won't have some other alien superpower supplying us with weapons and intelligence and logistical support. Cornwallis would not have surrendered to Washington if the French fleet was not blockading him in at Yorktown. In any case, I think these examples are way too close to parity in 'power levels'. I find them unreasonable on the galactic scale.

I think if aliens come here, they are far, far, more likely to be VERY advanced than "slightly" advanced. It's not just the difficulty of getting here acting as a filter, it's the massive odds against them being even close to the 'same' age. If they want us gone, it will be like me taking out an ant colony in my back yard. I just spray for 5 minutes and my backyard will be ant-free by tomorrow. The ants aren't the Viet Cong.

They're ants
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4373
Gear Guru
 
🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremy.c. ➡️
I think the comparison for technology was a fair analogy, but the bigger power would have won if everything was on the table. Luckily the PR of total annihilation was bad enough to deter that. Perhaps the aliens will have peaceniks back home applying political pressure to not use their planet killer guns?
Or perhaps there are other aliens who will take "our side" and supply us with forcefields and flying saucers and photon torpedoes.

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There has been a lot of talk about self improving general AI, but we're still not close enough to know what that will mean for us, and it.
It would be amazing if AI could discover new physics for us.

Things that would lead to being able to harness the massive amounts of energy required for space travel, or folding space or whatever.
If the singularity leads to our destruction, then still working off a data set of one, it could explain the Fermi paradox...
Very few of the solutions to the Fermi paradox give rise to an optimistic outlook. I think one of the more likely is that biological evolution proceeds until thinking machines are invented and then those machines become the the successor "species". Certainly machine-beings are more suited for space travel, they can last for millennia, self-repair, don't need oxygen or food, less susceptible to radiation, can handle 10,000 year sublight journeys.

I would combine this with the "Zoo" hypothesis. The aliens are all machines have supplanted their biological ancestors. They have found us - a society of biologicals just on the verge of making the first sentient machines. Instead of "welcoming" us into the galactic federation because we achieved Warp Drive or whatever silly threshold , they are waiting to welcome our computers when they reach a certain threshold. Not looking good for humans, any way you slice it, but we have the consolation that these machines are our "descendants" - in a very real sense.

Quote:
a data set of one


that's the real problem with all our speculations. There is simply not enough information available to even guess at the likelihoods of this or that. A lot of the new exoplanet data seems to be pointing at the "Rare Earth" hypothesis. We may just be the lottery winners of the galaxy.
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4374
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PdotDdot's Avatar
 
1 Review written
🎧 10 years
We may be the lucky lottery winners but we are screwing it up every which way from Sunday.

We have grown technologically but we have not matured much if at all. We still let our ego's run the show. I look at political systems around the planet and ask myself, where are the adults?
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4375
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jeremy.c.'s Avatar
 
1 Review written
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
We may be the lucky lottery winners but we are screwing it up every which way from Sunday.

We have grown technologically but we have not matured much if at all. We still let our ego's run the show. I look at political systems around the planet and ask myself, where are the adults?
preach!
Clearly evolution prepped us to deal with about 300 people with compassion and beyond that... let god sort 'em out!
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4376
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deondamage's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremy.c. ➡️
If the singularity leads to our destruction, then still working off a data set of one, it could explain the Fermi paradox...
Well here`s another explanation. If more advanced civilizations are living billions of light years from us and expanding towards us faster than the speed of light, then we will not see them, until one day we wake up and see them all around us. We would probably experience seeing their scouts first. Kind off similar to what`s been going on with the UAP situation, if it`s indeed extra terrestrial. Possibly drones with advanced AI, reporting back.

Whether it`s extra terrestrial or terrestrial, I think both possibilities are equally exciting. Ether we`re being visited from other worlds, or we are starting to develop technologies that will help us visit other worlds. Or it`s just decoy tech, in which case...meh!
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4377
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1 Review written
🎧 15 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by deondamage ➡️
Well here`s another explanation. If more advanced civilizations are living billions of light years from us and expanding towards us faster than the speed of light, then we will not see them, until one day we wake up and see them all around us. We would probably experience seeing their scouts first. Kind off similar to what`s been going on with the UAP situation, if it`s indeed extra terrestrial. Possibly drones with advanced AI, reporting back.

Whether it`s extra terrestrial or terrestrial, I think both possibilities are equally exciting. Ether we`re being visited from other worlds, or we are starting to develop technologies that will help us visit other worlds. Or it`s just decoy tech, in which case...meh!
It would be cool to think that UAPs are alien drones, but to come that far and make simple blunders? The craziest and seemingly most cinched sighting we had were the Navy triangles, and it puzzled almost everyone until 1 person in 7 billion realized it was triangular bokeh on night vision lenses spotting airplanes. Then there was another object that was deconstructed by a video game designer who realized that it was an incredibly slow moving object in the foreground... beyond that where is the really credible footage? And why would we not assume it's just a 1 in 7 billion chance that got missed?

I like the "what if" of your proposition, but there isn't really any reason to believe that, unless we're being honest and say I want to believe, Fox Mulder.
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4378
Gear Guru
 
🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by PdotDdot ➡️
We may be the lucky lottery winners but we are screwing it up every which way from Sunday.
Suppose we could learn for a fact that we are the only self-aware species - at least in our galaxy? That out of the billions of tadpoles that ever hatched, we are the only ones who survived to become a frog?

I wonder if it would make any difference? Would we be more careful with our survival, knowing that we are the only keepers of the flame of sentience? Knowing that no exoplanet ever had all the Goldilocks conditions, and was able to keep those conditions steady for four billion years - would that make us take better care of our own planet?
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4379
Gear Guru
 
🎧 20 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by deondamage ➡️
Well here`s another explanation. If more advanced civilizations are living billions of light years from us and expanding towards us faster than the speed of light,
you know what else might be expanding towards us at the speed of light? False Vacuum Decay!

Quote:
Existential threat
If our universe is in a false vacuum state rather than a true vacuum state, then the decay from the less stable false vacuum to the more stable true vacuum (called false vacuum decay) could have dramatic consequences.[5][6]

The effects could range from complete cessation of existing fundamental forces, elementary particles and structures comprising them, to subtle change in some cosmological parameters, mostly depending on the potential difference between true and false vacuum. Some false vacuum decay scenarios are compatible with survival of structures like galaxies and stars[7][8] or even biological life[9] while others involve the full destruction of baryonic matter[10] or even immediate gravitational collapse of the universe,[11]
if any part of the universe fell into this more stable state, that "bubble" of true vacuum would instantly start expanding to encompass everything in the universe. Spacetime itself would fall into this lower state like a row of dominoes.

We'll never see it coming - any information about this event would reach us only at the instant when we too were destroyed.
Old 4th October 2022 | Show parent
  #4380
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PdotDdot's Avatar
 
1 Review written
🎧 10 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeq ➡️
Suppose we could learn for a fact that we are the only self-aware species - at least in our galaxy? That out of the billions of tadpoles that ever hatched, we are the only ones who survived to become a frog?

I wonder if it would make any difference? Would we be more careful with our survival, knowing that we are the only keepers of the flame of sentience? Knowing that no exoplanet ever had all the Goldilocks conditions, and was able to keep those conditions steady for four billion years - would that make us take better care of our own planet?
I'm afraid the answer is NO - at least that is my opinion.

Scientists have been screaming from the rafters for years about global warming and world leaders have been dragging their feet. Now we are learning that the scientific predictions were somewhat off and things are worse than previously suspected and yet we are still dragging our heels. It is all about greed, money and convenience. People seem to only change when their backs are against the wall and that is what we are seeing from the majority right now. The change is picking up steam but it is still too slow and my fear is that we are not going to fix this. I of course hope I am wrong.
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